Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.536636 1.598419 1.662532 1.734263 1.812565 1.895773 1.991318
2025-12-21 1.450229 1.531000 1.617441 1.717483 1.830931 1.956649 2.108037
2025-12-28 1.407496 1.503345 1.608489 1.733631 1.880242 2.048872 2.261096
2026-01-04 1.379198 1.487861 1.609629 1.758192 1.937490 2.151086 2.431826
2026-01-11 1.339706 1.456234 1.588972 1.754094 1.958194 2.208511 2.550042
2026-01-18 1.309343 1.432939 1.575831 1.756798 1.985575 2.274168 2.682946
2026-01-25 1.265899 1.391875 1.539018 1.727726 1.970154 2.282317 2.737116
2026-02-01 1.236461 1.366073 1.519082 1.717922 1.977782 2.319959 2.834448
2026-02-08 1.208361 1.340609 1.498184 1.705353 1.980282 2.349760 2.921960
2026-02-15 1.182252 1.316513 1.477816 1.692123 1.980537 2.375564 3.004849
2026-02-22 1.166167 1.304030 1.471216 1.696023 2.003520 2.434226 3.144287
2026-03-01 1.136019 1.273143 1.440267 1.666448 1.978578 2.421232 3.165339
2026-03-08 1.115090 1.253735 1.423951 1.656522 1.981722 2.451623 3.265588
2026-03-15 1.093245 1.232512 1.404547 1.641508 1.976613 2.468786 3.344514
2026-03-22 1.085436 1.228702 1.407326 1.656409 2.014849 2.554959 3.558720
2026-03-29 1.081227 1.229222 1.415573 1.678897 2.065123 2.664065 3.835256
2026-04-05 1.066839 1.216206 1.405477 1.675231 2.075876 2.709272 3.992567
2026-04-12 1.055632 1.206962 1.400022 1.677734 2.095875 2.771239 4.196507
2026-04-19 1.033878 1.183494 1.374893 1.651259 2.069724 2.751689 4.216273
2026-04-26 1.019698 1.169616 1.362301 1.642327 2.070463 2.779130 4.349079
2026-05-03 1.005199 1.155001 1.348321 1.630860 2.066543 2.797787 4.464530
2026-05-10 0.991074 1.140589 1.334256 1.618777 2.060998 2.812940 4.574385
2026-05-17 0.983238 1.134281 1.331024 1.622344 2.080632 2.875765 4.821633